Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 July 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 JUL 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. A SINGLE C-CLASS X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED TODAY AT 1845UT. REGION 8276 (S19E62) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. OTHER REGIONS EXPERIENCED MEASURABLE GROWTH AND DECAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SOME ACTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THIS TIME.
III. Event Probabilities 20 JUL to 22 JUL
Class M15%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 JUL 102
  Predicted   20 JUL-22 JUL  105/108/110
  90 Day Mean        19 JUL 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUL  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUL  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUL-22 JUL  007/008-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 JUL to 22 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%25%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
NOTICE: GOES-9 CONTINUES TO OPERATE AND XRS DATA HAVE BEEN CONTINUOUS. FAILURE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME. GOES-10 IS NEARING OPERATIONAL STATUS.

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