Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 July 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 JUL 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. NEW REGION 8275 (N16E64) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. SEVERAL SUNSPOT GROUPS CONTRIBUTE TO THE NEAR C-CLASS BACKGROUND AND HAVE THE POSSIBILITY TO GENERATE LOW M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGIONS 8273 AND 8274. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS. THE CAUSE OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE A GEO-EFFECTIVELY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. SOLAR WIND SPEEDS ROSE FROM 300 KM/S NEAR THE START OF THE UT DAY TO NEARLY 700 KM/S FROM 06-1400 UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
III. Event Probabilities 17 JUL to 19 JUL
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 JUL 106
  Predicted   17 JUL-19 JUL  106/107/108
  90 Day Mean        16 JUL 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUL  002/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUL  025/040
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUL-19 JUL  015/018-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 JUL to 19 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
NOTICE: GOES-9 CONTINUES TO OPERATE AMD XRS DATA HAVE BEEN CONTINUOUS. FAILURE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME. GOES-10 IS NEARING OPERATIONAL STATUS.

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