Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 July 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 JUL 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8270 (S17E15) PRODUCED AN M4/1B FLARE AT 14/1259Z. A 250 F.U. BURST AT 2695 MHZ AND STRONG TYPE IV ACCOMPANIED THIS IMPULSIVE EVENT. A TYPE II BURST MAY WELL HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS EVENT BUT WAS PREDOMINANTLY OBSCURED BY THE TYPE IV. OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C2 FLARES OCCURRED AT 14/0225Z AND 14/1903Z. AT 14/1100Z REGION 8269 (N18E17) PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE. REGION 8270 IS SMALL AND RELATIVELY STABLE IN AREA BUT POSSESSES TIGHT MAGNETIC GRADIENTS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MAGNETOGRAPHS INDICATE A DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE CENTER OF THE REGION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8270 ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, ONLY SLIGHT MAGNETIC SIMPLIFICATION IN THIS DIMINUTIVE REGION WOULD RESULT IN A LARGE DECREASE OF THAT POSSIBILITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR 15 JUL. PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 15-16 JUL WITH PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD DUE TO THE M4/1B FLARE MENTIONED ABOVE. THE LACK OF MASS EJECTION INFORMATION FROM THE NOW CRIPPLED SOHO SATELLITE LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
III. Event Probabilities 15 JUL to 17 JUL
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 JUL 103
  Predicted   15 JUL-17 JUL  103/103/104
  90 Day Mean        14 JUL 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JUL  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUL  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUL-17 JUL  005/008-010/015-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 JUL to 17 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%30%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%30%30%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
NOTICE: GOES-9 CONTINUES TO OPERATE. HOWEVER, ONE REACTION WHEEL IS ABOVE TEMPERATURE AND CURRENT DRAW LIMITS. FAILURE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME WITH LOSS OF XRS DATA. GOES-10 IS NEARING OPERATIONAL STATUS.

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