Viewing archive of Monday, 13 July 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 JUL 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. FREQUENT B-CLASS ENHANCEMENTS OCCURRED, PRIMARILY FROM REGION 8270 (S21E27). THIS REGION GREW SLOWLY DURING THE PERIOD AND EXHIBITED SLIGHTLY MIXED POLARITIES. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO BURST OCCURRED AT 13/0935Z. NO X-RAY BURST OR OTHER ACTIVITY OF NOTE COINCIDED WITH THE TYPE II.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LOW. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN REGION 8270 SHOULD RESULT IN OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. ISOLATED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 14 JUL to 16 JUL
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 JUL 106
  Predicted   14 JUL-16 JUL  107/108/110
  90 Day Mean        13 JUL 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JUL  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUL  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUL-16 JUL  005/008-005/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 JUL to 16 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
NOTICE: GOES-9 CONTINUES TO OPERATE AND THE X-RAY SENSOR REMAINS POINTED AT THE SUN. GOES-10 WILL BECOME OPERATIONAL THE WEEK OF 13 JUL AND WILL BEGIN ITS MOVEMENT TO 135W LONGITUDE SHORTLY THEREAFTER TO REPLACE GOES-9.

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