Viewing archive of Monday, 6 July 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 JUL 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE C-CLASS X-RAY EVENT
OCCURRED AT 06/1400UT. REGIONS 8256 (S25W74) AND 8264 (N16W01) SHOWED
MINOR ACTIVITY AND SOME PLAGE POINT BRIGHTENING BUT CONTINUE TO
DECLINE IN INTENSITY. THE REST OF THE REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 8256 AND 8264 COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO ACTIVE.
III. Event Probabilities 07 JUL to 09 JUL
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 JUL 121 Predicted 07 JUL-09 JUL 120/118/116 90 Day Mean 06 JUL 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JUL 012/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JUL 018/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JUL-09 JUL 015/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 JUL to 09 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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