Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 July 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 JUL 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. MOST OF TODAY'S ACTIVITY ORIGINATED FROM REGIONS 8256 (S24W60) AND 8264 (N17E15). REGION 8256 HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN PLAGE AREA OR SPOT COUNT, HOWEVER ACTIVITY LEVEL HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY. MAXIMUM ACTIVITY FROM THIS REGION WAS A C1/SF EVENT AT 05/1824UT. REGION 8264 HAS SHOWN INCREASED ACTIVITY TODAY WITH A C7/2F EVENT OCCURRING AT 05/1144UT. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 8265 (N20E44) AND 8266 (N24E73).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
THE SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. BOTH REGIONS 8256 AND 8264 CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
III. Event Probabilities 06 JUL to 08 JUL
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 JUL 124
  Predicted   06 JUL-08 JUL  130/126/122
  90 Day Mean        05 JUL 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUL  011/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUL  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUL-08 JUL  015/012-015/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 JUL to 08 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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