Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 July 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 JUL 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. MOST OF TODAY'S ACTIVITY
ORIGINATED FROM REGIONS 8256 (S24W60) AND 8264 (N17E15). REGION 8256
HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN PLAGE AREA OR SPOT COUNT, HOWEVER
ACTIVITY LEVEL HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY. MAXIMUM
ACTIVITY FROM THIS REGION WAS A C1/SF EVENT AT 05/1824UT. REGION
8264 HAS SHOWN INCREASED ACTIVITY TODAY WITH A C7/2F EVENT OCCURRING
AT 05/1144UT. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET. TWO NEW REGIONS
WERE NUMBERED: 8265 (N20E44) AND 8266 (N24E73).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
THE SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. BOTH REGIONS 8256 AND 8264 CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
III. Event Probabilities 06 JUL to 08 JUL
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 JUL 124 Predicted 06 JUL-08 JUL 130/126/122 90 Day Mean 05 JUL 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUL 011/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUL 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUL-08 JUL 015/012-015/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 JUL to 08 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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