Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 July 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 JUL 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW TO MODERATE. ALMOST ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WAS PRODUCED BY REGION 8256 (S23W47). THIS REGION HAS INCREASED IN PLAGE AREA AND SPOT COUNT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, CURRENTLY AN 18 SPOT DRO-BETA. IT HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS AND SUBFLARES AS WELL AS AN M-CLASS EVENT WITH A CORRESPONDING SN FLARE AT 04/1216UT AND A NEAR M-CLASS EVENT (C9.7) WITH A 1N FLARE AT 04/1643UT. THE ONLY OTHER REGION SHOWING ANY ACTIVITY WAS 8260 (S23W14) WHICH PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE AT 04/0739UT. IT HAS SHOWN ONLY MINOR PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS SINCE THAT TIME. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8256 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8260 COULD ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRING BETWEEN 03/00-03UT. THE GREATER THAN 2MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE INCREASED TO NEAR THRESHOLD LEVELS AT 04/1900UT AND REMAINED THERE FOR THE REST OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FILED IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
III. Event Probabilities 05 JUL to 07 JUL
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 JUL 129
  Predicted   05 JUL-07 JUL  130/130/126
  90 Day Mean        04 JUL 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JUL  011/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUL  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUL-07 JUL  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 JUL to 07 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%40%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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