Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 July 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 JUL 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 02/0122Z. THE ONLY OTHER REGION TO FLARE THIS PERIOD WAS REGION 8256 (S24W19), PRODUCING A B8/SF AT 02/1242Z. REGION 8260 (S24E12) EXHIBITED FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN STABLE OR SHOWED SOME DECAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. THOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVE REGIONS HAVE STABILIZED OR DECAYED THIS PERIOD, THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE ACTIVE PERIOD BETWEEN 02/00-03Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED ON 4 AND 5 JULY IN RESPONSE TO THE C6/SF ON 1 JULY.
III. Event Probabilities 03 JUL to 05 JUL
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 JUL 120
  Predicted   03 JUL-05 JUL  120/118/116
  90 Day Mean        02 JUL 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JUL  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JUL  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JUL-05 JUL  010/012-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 JUL to 05 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%35%
Minor storm05%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%40%40%
Minor storm05%25%25%
Major-severe storm01%10%10%

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