Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 July 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 JUL 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8253 (N18W43) PRODUCED TWO C-CLASS FLARES: A C1/SF AT 30/2301Z, AND A C6/SF AT 01/1840Z WITH A TYPE II SWEEP AND MODERATE DECAMETRIC BURSTS INCLUDING 110 SFU AT 2695 MHZ. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED TYPE II ALSO OCCURRED WITH A C1 FLARE AT 01/1020Z. REGION 8259 (N27E25) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 01/0009Z. THIS REGION EXHIBITED SOME GROWTH AND DEVELOPED MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 8256 (S23W08) PRODUCED A C3/1F AT 01/1814Z WITH A DISAPPEARING FILAMENT. THE REMAINING FIVE REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. SEVERAL OF THE EXISTING REGIONS ARE CAPABLE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET,
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 02 JUL to 04 JUL
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 JUL 127
  Predicted    02 JUL-04 JUL  126/126/126
  90 Day Mean        01 JUL 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JUN  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 JUL  004/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 JUL-04 JUL  010/012-010/012-012/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 JUL to 04 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm 05%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%02%02%

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