Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 June 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 JUN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DROPPED TO VERY LOW LEVELS. ALL SPOTTED
REGIONS APPEARED SIMPLE AND STABLE. A SINGLE B-CLASS SUBFLARE
OCCURRED. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF SPACE-BASED CORONAL IMAGES REVEALED A
PARTIAL-HALO CME FOLLOWED THE LONG-DURATION M1 X-RAY FLARE MENTIONED
IN YESTERDAY'S REPORT. HOWEVER, THE CME DID NOT APPEAR TO BE
EARTH-DIRECTED. NEW REGION 8250 (S26E03) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. A GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S LONG-DURATION M1 X-RAY FLARE.
THE ENHANCEMENT BEGAN AROUND 16/2300, PEAKED NEAR MID-PERIOD, THEN
GRADUALLY DECLINED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX IS
EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO PRE-ENHANCEMENT LEVELS ON 18 JUNE.
III. Event Probabilities 18 JUN to 20 JUN
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 JUN 101 Predicted 18 JUN-20 JUN 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 17 JUN 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JUN 005/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUN 004/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUN-20 JUN 012/012-015/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 JUN to 20 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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