Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 June 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 JUN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. A
LONG-DURATION M1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 16/1842UT. A POST-FLARE
LOOP-PROMINENCE SYSTEM WAS VISIBLE BEYOND THE WEST LIMB SHORTLY
AFTER THE FLARE NEAR OLD REGION 8232, NOW ALMOST TWO DAYS BEYOND THE
LIMB. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLARE, BUT DID
NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH DIRECTED. ALL VISIBLE SPOT GROUPS WERE QUIET
AND STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 17 JUN to 19 JUN
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 JUN 104 Predicted 17 JUN-19 JUN 102/102/102 90 Day Mean 16 JUN 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUN 006/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUN 005/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUN-19 JUN 010/012-010/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 JUN to 19 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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