Viewing archive of Monday, 8 June 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 JUN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE DAY WAS A C5/2N FROM REGION 8232 (S22W03) AT 08/1556UT. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY MINOR RADIO EMISSIONS AND A PARTIAL HALO CME MOVING SOUTH AND EAST. THE FILAMENT THAT DISAPPEARED NEAR S18W18 BEFORE 07/0358UT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY REDEVELOPING. PORTIONS OF THE FILAMENT NEAR N19W63 DISAPPEARED AFTER 07/1714UT. TWO BXO SPOT GROUPS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, REGION 8238 (S19E06) IN THE TRAILING SECTION OF REGION 8232 AND REGION 8239 (N21E59).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, ISOLATED C CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX EXCEEDED EVENT THRESHOLDS AT 08/0836UT AND REMAINS ELEVATED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REACH ACTIVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE FIELD SHOULD RETURN TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 09 JUN to 11 JUN
Class M10%10%10%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 JUN 117
  Predicted   09 JUN-11 JUN  117/117/116
  90 Day Mean        08 JUN 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JUN  019/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUN  012/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUN-11 JUN  018/018-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 JUN to 11 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%10%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm06%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm06%06%01%

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