Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 June 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 JUN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 03/2308Z AND REGION 8232 (S19E50) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 04/2039Z. REGIONS 8232 AND 8233 (N28E49) BOTH PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. MAGNETICALLY, REGION 8232 SHOWED SEVERAL ISOLATED POLES INDICATING SOME MIXING OF POLARITIES BUT OVERALL THE REGION WAS STABLE. THE RATE OF EMERGENCE OF REGION 8233 SLOWED. A SMALL NEW REGION EMERGED NEAR N16E66 AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8234. BETWEEN 03/2130-2257Z, A REPORT WAS RECEIVED OF A LARGE DISAPPEARING FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR S40E70. NO CME WAS OBSERVED COINCIDENT WITH THIS EVENT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LOW. REGION 8232 SHOULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES AND IS CAPABLE OF GENERATING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT A FEW HIGH LATITUDE SITES. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE APPROACHING HIGH LEVELS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 05-06 JUN.
III. Event Probabilities 05 JUN to 07 JUN
Class M15%15%15%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 JUN 112
  Predicted   05 JUN-07 JUN  113/114/112
  90 Day Mean        04 JUN 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JUN  012(EST.)/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUN  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUN-07 JUN  010/014-010/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 JUN to 07 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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