Viewing archive of Friday, 29 May 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 MAY 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8226 (N18W94) PRODUCED
A M6.7/SF AT 29/0059Z. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES DURING THE DAY. REGION 8226 HAS ROTATED OVER THE WESTERN
LIMB AT THIS TIME. 2 NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: FORMER REGION SN55
(S22W13) IS NOW 8228 AND FORMER REGION SN53 (S18E11) IS NOW 8229.
BOTH REGIONS CONTAIN 2-SPOT "BXO-BETA" SPOT GROUPS. REGION 8227
CONTAINS A 5-SPOT "HAX" GROUP AND HAS SHOWN LITTLE ACTIVITY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
AS REGION 8226 CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE LIMB. ISOLATED C-FLARES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 8227.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL APPROXIMATELY
29/1600Z. AT THAT TIME A MAJOR STORM DEVELOPED. THIS WAS MOST LIKELY
CAUSED BY THE EFFECT OF A LONG DURATION C7 X-RAY AND CORRESPONDING
CME THAT OCCURRED ON 27/1335Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO QUIET TO ACTIVE.
III. Event Probabilities 30 MAY to 01 JUN
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 MAY 095 Predicted 30 MAY-01 JUN 096/096/096 90 Day Mean 29 MAY 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 MAY 008/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 MAY 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 MAY-01 JUN 018/018-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 MAY to 01 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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