Viewing archive of Monday, 18 May 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 MAY 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW, AS NO FLARES OCCURRED FOR A SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY. THE THREE ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8218 (S20W81), 8220 (S27W18), AND 8222 (N23W17), REMAINED QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW, WITH THE CHANCE FOR MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8222 (N23W17). IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, EXCEPT FOR A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL 18/1200-1500Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 19 MAY to 21 MAY
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 MAY 102
  Predicted    19 MAY-21 MAY  098/095/098
  90 Day Mean        18 MAY 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 MAY  010/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 MAY  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 MAY-21 MAY  005/010-005/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 MAY to 21 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%02%

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