Viewing archive of Monday, 11 May 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 MAY 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECLINED TO VERY LOW LEVELS. REGION 8220
(S26E68) WAS STABLE AS IT CONTINUED TO ROTATE INTO VIEW. REGION 8218
(S20E08) WAS STABLE AS WELL, AND PRODUCED ISOLATED B-CLASS
SUBFLARES. A 21 DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OVERNIGHT. IT WAS LAST SEEN CENTERED AT S33W44. NEW REGIONS
8221 (S09W46) AND 8222 (N20E68) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION
8220.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN
10 MEV PROTON FLUX RETURNED TO BACKGROUND LEVELS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 12 MAY to 14 MAY
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 MAY 108 Predicted 12 MAY-14 MAY 108/108/106 90 Day Mean 11 MAY 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAY 007/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAY 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAY-14 MAY 012/012-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 MAY to 14 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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