Viewing archive of Friday, 8 May 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 MAY 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THREE M-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS: AN M3 AT 0204Z (WITH TYPE II/IV SWEEPS), AND M1 AT 0608Z (WITH TYPE II/IV), AND AN M1 AT 1415Z. NO H-ALPHA FLARES WERE OBSERVED WITH THESE X-RAY EVENTS, BUT SUPPLEMENTAL DATA (EIT AND LASCO) INDICATE THAT REGION 8210, WHICH HAS ROTATED AROUND WEST LIMB, WAS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE. REGION 8214 (N28W61) WAS ABLE TO MUSTER A C5/1N FLARE AT 1306Z. THE REGION APPEARS TO BE DECAYING AND SIMPLIFYING, ALTHOUGH THE PROXIMITY TO THE LIMB MAKES ANALYSIS MORE DIFFICULT. A NEW B-TYPE GROUP NEAR N26E53 WAS ASSIGNED TODAY AS 8219. REGION 8218 (S20E48) APPEARS TO BE GROWING, BUT WAS FAIRLY STABLE. X-RAY IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE IS A REGION BEHIND THE NORTHEAST LIMB WHICH SHOULD ROTATE INTO VIEW SOMETIME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM EITHER REGION 8214 OR 8218.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE WERE SOME PERIODS OF MINOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES, PARTICULARLY AROUND 07/2100-08/0200Z AND FROM 08/1500-08/1700Z.THE DISTURBANCE BEGAN GRADUALLY: THERE WAS NO CLEAR INDICATOR OF THE ARRIVAL OF A SHOCK AT L1 OR EARTH. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE DAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENCE FROM THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE MAY CAUSE SOME LOCAL NIGHTTIME SUBSTORM EFFECTS. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 09 MAY to 11 MAY
Class M55%55%55%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 MAY 118
  Predicted   09 MAY-11 MAY  115/110/105
  90 Day Mean        08 MAY 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 MAY  010/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 MAY  025/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 MAY-11 MAY  015/015-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 MAY to 11 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%10%10%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%10%10%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%

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