Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 April 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 APR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY TWO SPOTTED REGIONS ARE VISIBLE. REGION 8205 (N21W25) EXHIBITED MODERATE GROWTH AND LATEST OBSERVATORY REPORTS INDICATE IT IS NOW AN 18 SPOT DAO BETA GROUP. SEVERAL PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND MINOR X-RAY ENHANCEMENTS OCCURRED IN THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8206 (N23E46) EMERGED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A THREE SPOT SIMPLE BETA CONFIGURATION. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8205 HAS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRODUCING A C-CLASS FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET,
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 20 APR to 22 APR
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 APR 096
  Predicted    20 APR-22 APR  094/092/092
  90 Day Mean        19 APR 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 APR  008/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 APR  003/002
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 APR-22 APR  005/008-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 APR to 22 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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