Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 April 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 APR 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY TWO SPOTTED REGIONS
ARE VISIBLE. REGION 8205 (N21W25) EXHIBITED MODERATE GROWTH AND
LATEST OBSERVATORY REPORTS INDICATE IT IS NOW AN 18 SPOT DAO BETA
GROUP. SEVERAL PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND MINOR X-RAY ENHANCEMENTS
OCCURRED IN THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. NEWLY
NUMBERED REGION 8206 (N23E46) EMERGED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A THREE
SPOT SIMPLE BETA CONFIGURATION. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8205 HAS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRODUCING A C-CLASS
FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET,
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 20 APR to 22 APR
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 APR 096 Predicted 20 APR-22 APR 094/092/092 90 Day Mean 19 APR 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 APR 008/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 APR 003/002 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 APR-22 APR 005/008-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 APR to 22 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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