Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 April 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 APR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THREE SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE LARGEST AN UNCORRELATED C3 FLARE AT 11/0912. REGION 8194 (S19W03) GENERATED THE ONLY CORRELATED EVENT, A C1/SF FLARE AT 11/1513Z. ALL OF THE 7 ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE SINCE YESTERDAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LOW, WITH THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL 11/0900-1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 12 APR to 14 APR
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 APR 128
  Predicted   12 APR-14 APR  128/126/126
  90 Day Mean        11 APR   ???
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 APR  008/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 APR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 APR-14 APR  010/013-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 APR to 14 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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