Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 April 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 APR 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL C-CLASS FLARES
HAVE OCCURRED. REGION 8194 (S18E24) PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF
THE DAY, A C5/1F AT 08/2138Z. THREE ACTIVE REGIONS WERE NEWLY
NUMBERED: 8200 (S21E06), 8201 (N19E62), AND 8202 (S21E56). REGION
8200 IS EMERGING RAPIDLY AND HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP
PENUMBRA.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR FLARE ACTIVITY ARE
REGIONS 8194, 8195 (S27E27), 8198 (S28E49), AND 8200.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 10 APR to 12 APR
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 APR 140 Predicted 10 APR-12 APR 140/140/138 90 Day Mean 09 APR 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 APR 006/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 APR 006/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 APR-12 APR 005/010-005/010-010/013
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 APR to 12 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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