Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 April 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 APR 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A FEW SMALL C-CLASS
FLARES, NONE OF WHICH HAD CORRESPONDING OPTICAL REPORTS. THE LARGEST
OF THESE WAS A C1 AT 07/0110Z. FOUR NEW ACTIVE REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED: REGION 8196 (N18W61) EMERGED AS A SMALL BIPOLAR GROUP;
REGION 8197 (N32E48) LIKEWISE EMERGED AS A SMALL BIPOLE; 8198
(S28E74) ROTATED AROUND THE SOUTHEAST LIMB AS PART OF THE 8194/8195
ACTIVE REGION COMPLEX; AND 8199 (S26W02) IS EMERGING RAPIDLY JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF REGION 8193 (S23E02).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS OF POTENTIAL M-CLASS ACTIVITY ARE
THE 8193/8199 AREA AND THE COMPLEX COMPRISED OF REGIONS 8194, 8195,
AND 8198.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A SHOCK OBSERVED BY
ACE SENSORS AT ABOUT 07/1650Z WAS FOLLOWD BY A SUDDEN IMPULSE
RESPONSE DETECTED IN GOES AND GROUND-BASED MAGNETOMETERS AT ABOUT
07/1750Z. THE FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED SINCE THE SHOCK.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 08 APR to 10 APR
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 APR 135 Predicted 08 APR-10 APR 138/140/142 90 Day Mean 07 APR 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 APR 004/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 APR 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 APR-10 APR 010/008-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 APR to 10 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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