Viewing archive of Monday, 30 March 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 MAR 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S LARGEST X-RAY EVENT WAS
A C1 AT 1952Z; THERE WERE NO CORRESPONDING OPTICAL SIGNATURES. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE NORTHERN POLAR CROWN FILAMENT (NEAR
N31W43) DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 1235-1503Z. REGION 8185 (S25W39) IS THE
DOMINANT REGION ON THE DISK IN TERMS OF SUNSPOT AREA AND MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. NONETHELESS THE REGION WAS QUIET AND STABLE DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
BUT THERE IS A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8185.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOME
MINOR SUBSTORM ACTIVITY WAS NOTED AT HIGH LATITUDES BETWEEN
1400-1700Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS WERE AT HIGH FLUX
LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. THE PROBABILITY FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER THAN USUAL DUE TO THE LONG DURATION M2 ON THE 27TH AND THE
FILAMENT ERUPTION ON THE 29TH. THERE IS EVIDENCE FROM LASCO THAT THE
FILAMENT ERUPTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A CORONAL MASS EJECTION.
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED
ON THE THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 31 MAR to 02 APR
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 MAR 108 Predicted 31 MAR-02 APR 102/100/098 90 Day Mean 30 MAR 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 MAR 010/017 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 MAR 014/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 MAR-02 APR 015/012-015/010-010/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 MAR to 02 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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