Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 March 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 MAR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. A VERY LONG DURATION C5 X-RAY EVENT WAS OBSERVED FROM 25/1231-1434Z (HALF POWER). HOWEVER, X-RAY FLUXES FROM THIS EVENT DID NOT RETURN TO BACKGROUND UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE FAST CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WITH THIS EVENT AND RECENT X-RAY IMAGERY SHOW THIS FLARE ORIGINATING FROM BEHIND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB. THE SOURCE REGIONS THERE ARE 2-3 DAYS BEHIND THE LIMB. REGION 8185 (S25E25) SHOWED SLIGHT DECAY AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES. THIS REGION REMAINED MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX. A SMALL FILAMENT FADED IN THIS REGION BETWEEN 25/0112-1320Z. REGION 8183 (N22W32) CEASED ITS RAPID GROWTH PHASE AND BEGAN TO DECAY. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED WEAK TYPE IV WAS OBSERVED AT 24/2207Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8185 IS BECOMING LESS A THREAT FOR M-CLASS FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED FROM 24/2100Z-25/0900Z. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IT IS LIKELY THIS SMALL DISTURBANCE IS FROM AN OBLIQUE IMPACT OF ONE OF THE MANY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS OBSERVED DURING THE LAST WEEK.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON 26 MAR. ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 27-28 MAR.
III. Event Probabilities 26 MAR to 28 MAR
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 MAR 115
  Predicted   26 MAR-28 MAR  113/111/111
  90 Day Mean        25 MAR 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 MAR  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 MAR  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 MAR-28 MAR  012/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 MAR to 28 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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