Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 March 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 MAR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENT WAS A LONG DURATION C8 FLARE AT 24/1114Z ASSOCIATED WITH A LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM OBSERVED SLIGHTLY LATER AT S32W90. YET ANOTHER CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED WITH THIS EVENT. REGION 8185 (S24E38) WAS BASICALLY STABLE AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES. MIXED POLARITIES REMAINED IN THIS REGION. REGION 8183 (N22W20) GREW RAPIDLY DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8185 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. C-CLASS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8183 SHOULD RAPID GROWTH CONTINUE. EVENTS FROM THE ACTIVE REGION COMPLEX BEHIND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB SHOULD BECOME LESS FREQUENT AS THAT AREA ROTATES TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SUN. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III. Event Probabilities 25 MAR to 27 MAR
Class M 35%35%35%
Class X 10%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 MAR 121
  Predicted    25 MAR-27 MAR  119/117/117
  90 Day Mean        24 MAR 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 MAR  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAR  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAR-27 MAR  010/012-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 MAR to 27 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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