Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 March 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 MAR 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENT
WAS A LONG DURATION C8 FLARE AT 24/1114Z ASSOCIATED WITH A LOOP
PROMINENCE SYSTEM OBSERVED SLIGHTLY LATER AT S32W90. YET ANOTHER
CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED WITH THIS EVENT. REGION 8185
(S24E38) WAS BASICALLY STABLE AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES. MIXED
POLARITIES REMAINED IN THIS REGION. REGION 8183 (N22W20) GREW
RAPIDLY DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. REGION 8185 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENTS. C-CLASS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION
8183 SHOULD RAPID GROWTH CONTINUE. EVENTS FROM THE ACTIVE REGION
COMPLEX BEHIND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB SHOULD BECOME LESS FREQUENT AS
THAT AREA ROTATES TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SUN.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III. Event Probabilities 25 MAR to 27 MAR
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 MAR 121 Predicted 25 MAR-27 MAR 119/117/117 90 Day Mean 24 MAR 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 MAR 004/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAR 005/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAR-27 MAR 010/012-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 MAR to 27 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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