Viewing archive of Monday, 23 March 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 MAR 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINDED MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED M2 FLARE WAS OBSERVED AT 23/0309Z. REGION 8185 (S25E51)
IS A MODERATE SIZE CLASS F SUNSPOT GROUP WITH MIXED MAGNETIC
POLARITIES. HOWEVER, THIS REGION HAS NOT EXHIBITED RAPID EVOLUTION.
A SMALL REGION EMERGED NEAR S23W74 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION
8187. SEVERAL CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. ONE
WAS FROM THE NORTHEAST LIMB WHERE A SMALL TO MODERATE SIZE REGION IS
ABOUT TO ROTATE ONTO THE VISIBLE DISK. THE LATTER EVENT WAS LARGE
AND SLOW FROM THE WEST LIMB BEGINNING ABOUT 23/0700Z. NEITHER
EJECTION APPEARED TO BE PROPAGATING TOWARDS THE EARTH.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. DESPITE ITS LACK OF DYNAMICS, REGION 8185 REMAINS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DROPPED STEADILY DURING THE PERIOD TO APPROXIMATELY 400 KM/S.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 24 MAR to 26 MAR
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 MAR 122 Predicted 24 MAR-26 MAR 117/113/112 90 Day Mean 23 MAR 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 MAR 009/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAR 007/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAR-26 MAR 010/012-010/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 MAR to 26 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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