Viewing archive of Monday, 16 March 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 MAR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORROLATED M-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED: AN M2 WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS AT 15/2141Z AND AN M1 AT 16/0102Z. NO SOON SITES WERE OBSERVING THE SUN DURING THE EVENTS BUT REGION 8179 (S22W17) IS THE LIKELY SOURCE. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS FLARES INCLUDING A C7/1N AT 16/1157Z AND A C6/1F AT 1714Z. THE REGION APPEARS TO HAVE MATURED NOW AS AN EKC, 50 SPOT BETA GAMMA GROUP WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF 800 MILLIONTHS. THE WEAK DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IS NO LONGER APPARENT. CORONAL INSTRUMENTS ON THE SOHO SATELLITE OBSERVED A HALO/CME OFF THE SE LIMB BEGINNING AT 15/1930Z. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE THE MOST IMPULSIVE OF REGION 8179'S FLARES - YESTERDAY'S M1/1B. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGION 8179 HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY; HOWEVER, IT REMAINS A LARGE AND COMPLEX REGION, UNDERGOING FREQUENT CHANGES IN SUNSPOT CONFIGURATION. GOOD POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES. A MINOR DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY'S HALO/CME IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
III. Event Probabilities 17 MAR to 19 MAR
Class M 50%50%45%
Class X 15%15%10%
Proton15%15%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 MAR 124
  Predicted    17 MAR-19 MAR  124/122/120
  90 Day Mean        16 MAR 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAR  012/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAR  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAR-19 MAR  010/012-010/008-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 MAR to 19 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm 05%05%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%40%
Minor storm 05%05%20%
Major-severe storm 01%01%10%

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