Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 March 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 MAR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. TWO NEW REGIONS ROTATED INTO VIEW, 8178 (S15E72) AND 8179 (S22E60), MAKING A TOTAL OF 5 SPOTTED REGIONS NOW VISIBLE. REGION 8179 IS THE LIKELY RETURN OF OLD 8156, THE PRODUCER OF MANY C-CLASS FLARES LAST ROTATION. A LARGE BUSHY FILAMENT POSITIONED NEAR S50E10 DISAPPEARED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL 0600Z. ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SINCE. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A STEADY INCREASE IN SPEED STARTING NEAR 0600Z AND CONTINUING TO A MAXIMUM VALUE NEAR 500 KM/S AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHER SOLAR WIND DATA SUGGEST THE POSSIBLE SOURCE OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE A HIGH SPEED STREAM ORIGINATING FROM THE SOLAR SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, ALTHOUGH AN EXACT DETERMINATION IS ELUSIVE AT THIS POINT. THE ENHANCED TOTAL FIELD IN THE SOLAR WIND ARGUES FOR A CONTRIBUTION FROM A CME AS WELL.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN WITH TIME, GIVING WAY TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 11 MAR to 13 MAR
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 MAR 096
  Predicted   11 MAR-13 MAR  099/102/105
  90 Day Mean        10 MAR 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAR  001/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAR  025/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAR-13 MAR  025/020-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 MAR to 13 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%10%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%25%15%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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