Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 March 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 03 MAR 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8171 (S23W50) REMAINS
THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE VISIBLE DISK. THIS REGION HAS
CONTINUED TO GROW IN WHITE LIGHT AREA BUT REMAINS RELATIVELY SIMPLE
IN MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. THE REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES SINCE YESTERDAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY IN REGION 8171. A SMALL M-CLASS
FLARE IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT IMMINENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 04 MAR to 06 MAR
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 MAR 097 Predicted 04 MAR-06 MAR 098/098/096 90 Day Mean 03 MAR 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAR 011/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAR 004/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAR-06 MAR 010/008-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 MAR to 06 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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