Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 February 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 FEB 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8164 (N16W51) CONTINUES TO DECAY WITH ONLY FIVE SPOTS NOW VISIBLE IN WHITE LIGHT. REGION 8171 (S24W10) EXHIBITED SLIGHT GROWTH AND PRODUCED A B1/SF AT 28/0926Z. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH 01 MAR WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 2 MAR.
III. Event Probabilities 01 MAR to 03 MAR
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 FEB 094
  Predicted    01 MAR-03 MAR  091/091/090
  90 Day Mean        28 FEB 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 FEB  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 FEB  007/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 MAR-03 MAR  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 MAR to 03 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 05%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm 05%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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