Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 February 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 FEB 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8164 (N16W51)
CONTINUES TO DECAY WITH ONLY FIVE SPOTS NOW VISIBLE IN WHITE LIGHT.
REGION 8171 (S24W10) EXHIBITED SLIGHT GROWTH AND PRODUCED A B1/SF AT
28/0926Z. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH 01 MAR WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY 2 MAR.
III. Event Probabilities 01 MAR to 03 MAR
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 FEB 094 Predicted 01 MAR-03 MAR 091/091/090 90 Day Mean 28 FEB 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 FEB 002/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 FEB 007/009 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 MAR-03 MAR 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 MAR to 03 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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