Viewing archive of Friday, 27 February 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 FEB 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY: REGION 8169 (S20W44) IS A 3-SPOT BXO BETA, REGION 8170 (N00E02) IS A 1-SPOT AXX, AND REGION 8171 (S214E05) IS A 3-SPOT BXO BETA. REGION 8164 HAS DECREASED IN SIZE TO 90 MILLIONTHS, BUT REMAINS THE LARGEST AND MOST ACTIVE REGION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. SEVERAL NEW REGIONS HAVE BEEN NUMBERED, AND BEGIN TO GROW. REGION 8164 RETAINS THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 28 FEB to 02 MAR
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 FEB 090
  Predicted    28 FEB-02 MAR  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        27 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 FEB  000/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 FEB  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 FEB-02 MAR  010/012-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 FEB to 02 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm 05%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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