Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 February 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 FEB 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8156 (S25W34), CURRENTLY A 16-SPOT 'EHI' BETA-GAMMA, GENERATED THREE C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE LARGEST A C5/1F AT 18/1138Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW, WITH A GOOD PROBABILITY FOR CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8156. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING RECORDED DURING THE INTERVAL 18/0000-0300Z. THIS DISTURBANCE IS THOUGHT TO BE RELATED TO THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION ACTIVITY OF 14 FEBRUARY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND MOSTLY QUIET THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 19 FEB to 21 FEB
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 FEB 103
  Predicted   19 FEB-21 FEB  105/103/100
  90 Day Mean        18 FEB   096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 FEB  012/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 FEB  022/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 FEB-21 FEB  008/008-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 FEB to 21 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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