Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 January 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 JAN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SPOTLESS PLAGE AREA PRODUCED
A LONG-DURATION C1/SF FLARE AT 25/1512UT. THE FLARE SITE WAS NEAR
N21E25. AN ASSOCIATED, EASTWARD-DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS
OBSERVED DEPARTING THE EAST LIMB BEGINNING ABOUT 25/1500UT. REGION
8142 (S21W35) GREW SLIGHTLY AND PRODUCED A C-CLASS SUBFLARE LATE IN
THE PERIOD. REGION 8143 (S35E36) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY GROW IN SPOT
COUNT AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT PRODUCED NO FLARES. NEW REGION
8147 (S23E02) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 8142 AND 8143 ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES. THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8143.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET, BUT BECAME DISTURBED DURING 25/0400
- 0600UT WITH ACTIVE LEVELS DETECTED AT ALL LATITUDES. FIELD
ACTIVITY DECLINED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED TOMORROW SUBSIDING TO MOSTLY QUIET
LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 26 JAN to 28 JAN
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 JAN 108 Predicted 26 JAN-28 JAN 106/108/110 90 Day Mean 25 JAN 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JAN 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JAN 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JAN-28 JAN 008/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 JAN to 28 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
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