Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 January 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 JAN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. NEW
REGION 8142 (S21E08) EMERGED IN AN OLD PLAGE FIELD AND ANOTHER SMALL
SUNSPOT GROUP BECAME VISIBLE AT S35E73 AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION
8143.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET ON 23 JAN. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE 24-25 JAN PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
OBSERVED EARLY ON 21 JAN. ISOLATED MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS SMALL DISTURBANCE.
III. Event Probabilities 23 JAN to 25 JAN
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 JAN 093 Predicted 23 JAN-25 JAN 092/092/092 90 Day Mean 22 JAN 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JAN 006/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JAN 002/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JAN-25 JAN 005/008-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 JAN to 25 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
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