Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 December 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 DEC 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8122 (N29W47) PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE AT 14/1611Z. THIS REGION WAS GENERALLY STABLE WITH MINOR POLARITY MIXING IN THE NON-SPOT FIELDS. A REGION EMERGED NEAR N19E62 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8123. CORONAGRAPH IMAGES NEAR 14/0630Z SHOWED A DENSE BUBBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION OFF THE EAST LIMB NEAR THE EQUATOR. IT HAD REACHED APPROXIMATELY 10 RADII ABOVE THE LIMB BY THAT TIME. NO CORRELATIVE REPORTS FROM GROUND BASED OBSERVATORIES WERE RECEIVED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8122 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS NEAR 14/1435Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE MASS EJECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH.
III. Event Probabilities 15 DEC to 17 DEC
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 DEC 090
  Predicted   15 DEC-17 DEC  087/085/083
  90 Day Mean        14 DEC 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 DEC  001/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 DEC  001/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 DEC-17 DEC  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 DEC to 17 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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