Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 December 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 DEC 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO UNCORRELATED C1 XRAY BURSTS WERE DETECTED. REGION 8113 (N21W55) CONTINUED TO DECAY AS IT NEARED THE WEST LIMB. THIS REGION IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A CAO GROUP OF 7 SPOTS IN A SIMPLE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 8115 (N33W34) SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. REGION 8116 (N26E27) DISPLAYED SLIGHT GROWTH AND IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A CRO GROUP OF ONLY 4 SPOTS. ALL REGIONS WERE RELATIVELY QUIET. THE LARGE FILAMENT STRUCTURE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE VISIBLE DISK LOST CONSIDERABLE MASS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT PRODUCED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION SIGNATURE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 8113 STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS FLARING AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ISOLATED MINOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY AS IT FURTHER DECAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 07 DEC to 09 DEC
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 DEC 109
  Predicted   07 DEC-09 DEC  104/104/100
  90 Day Mean        06 DEC 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 DEC  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 DEC  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 DEC-09 DEC  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 DEC to 09 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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