Viewing archive of Friday, 5 December 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 DEC 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8113 (N20W42)
CONTINUES TO DECAY PRODUCING JUST ONE SUBFLARE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THE REGION NOW CONSISTS OF APPROXIMATELY 12 SPOTS MEASURING 330
MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA. NEW REGIONS 8115 (N33W19), A 4 SPOT
BXO SPOT GROUP, AND 8116 (N24E43), A SINGLE AXX SPOT, WERE NUMBERED
TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8113 STILL HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE C-CLASS
FLARES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR M-CLASS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
LATITUDES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED ACTIVITY.
III. Event Probabilities 06 DEC to 08 DEC
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 DEC 104 Predicted 06 DEC-08 DEC 102/100/098 90 Day Mean 05 DEC 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 DEC 004/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 DEC 007/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 DEC-08 DEC 005/008-005/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 DEC to 08 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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