Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 December 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 DEC 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8113 (N21W28) PRODUCED JUST ONE C-CLASS FLARE, A C1/SF WITH AN ASSOCIATED BRIGHT SURGE AT 04/0541UT. MINOR RADIO BURST AT 245 MHZ THROUGH 4995 MHZ ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT. THE REGION HAS DECAYED SLIGHTLY IN SPOT COUNT, AREA, AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND NOW HAS APPROXIMATELY 26 SPOTS MEASURING 420 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA. THE OTHER SPOTTED REGION 8114 (S30W08) WAS QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8113, THOUGH SHOWING SIGNS OF DECAY, STILL HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 05 DEC to 07 DEC
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 DEC 107
  Predicted   05 DEC-07 DEC  105/103/101
  90 Day Mean        04 DEC 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 DEC  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 DEC  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 DEC-07 DEC  005/005-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 DEC to 07 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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