Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 December 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 DEC 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8313 (N20W16) PRODUCED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE REGION DECLINED IN SPOT COUNT DURING THE PERIOD, BUT RETAINED A MODERATELY COMPLEX MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. NEW REGION 8114 (S30E04) WAS ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8113 IS CAPABLE OF M-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY. THE REGION COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE AS WELL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 04 DEC to 06 DEC
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 DEC 112
  Predicted   04 DEC-06 DEC  110/108/106
  90 Day Mean        03 DEC 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 DEC  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 DEC  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 DEC-06 DEC  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 DEC to 06 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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