Viewing archive of Monday, 1 December 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 DEC 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8113 (N21E09) GENERATED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 01/0237Z. SINCE THAT TIME, ONLY MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED. REGION 8113 IS DOWN IN OVERALL AREA SINCE YESTERDAY TO APPROXIMATELY 550 MILLIONTHS, BUT ITS SPOT COUNT REMAINS HIGH AT 50. WITH THE SPLITTING OF ITS TRAILING PENUMBRA INTO THREE SEPARATE PENUMBRAS, REGION 8113 IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS AN 'FHI' BETA-GAMMA, HAVING LOST ITS PREVIOUS DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH, WITH THE CONTINUED HIGH PROBABILITY OF MAJOR FLARES FROM REGION 8113. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 02 DEC to 04 DEC
Class M75%75%75%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 DEC 117
  Predicted   02 DEC-04 DEC  120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        01 DEC 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 NOV  006/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 DEC  004/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 DEC-04 DEC  010/010-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 DEC to 04 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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