Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 November 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 NOV 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8113 (N20E60) PRODUCED AN X2/2B FLARE AT 27/1317Z. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 350 SFU RADIO BURST AT 2695 MHZ AND A TYPE II SWEEP. THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE A MODERATE-SIZED COMPLEX E-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP, ALTHOUGH LIMB PROXIMITY STILL INHIBITS COMPLETE ANALYSIS. THIS REGION ALSO GENERATED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES SINCE YESTERDAY. OTHER REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH WITH REGION 8113 AS THE PRIMARY FLARE PRODUCER. ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE IS POSSIBLE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 28 NOV to 30 NOV
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton02%02%02%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 NOV 111
  Predicted   28 NOV-30 NOV  115/120/125
  90 Day Mean        27 NOV 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 NOV  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 NOV  003/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 NOV-30 NOV  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 NOV to 30 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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