Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 November 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 NOV 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8108 (N19W52) PRODUCED
TWO SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS. THE DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THIS REGION
FADED AND AREAL COVERAGE IN WHITE LIGHT DECREASED. SOME MINOR MIXED
POLARITIES REMAINED BUT OVERALL THE REGION SIMPLIFIED. OLD REGION
8100 RETURNED AS A BROAD DIFFUSE PLAGE WITH ONE SMALL SPOT. THIS
AREA IS NOW NUMBERED AS REGION 8112 (S17E59).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
LOW LEVEL. REGION 8108 SHOULD PRODUCE INFREQUENT C-CLASS EVENTS.
CONTINUED DECAY IN THIS REGION WILL REDUCE THE ACTIVITY LEVEL TO
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS AND QUICKLY ESCALATED TO MINOR TO SEVERE STORM FROM
23/0000-1500Z. A MODERATE (7 PERCENT) FORBUSH DECREASE PEAKED NEAR
22/2200Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SAW QUIET TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY REACHED OVER 600 KM/S AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THE EARTH IS ENGULFED IN A MAGNETIC
CLOUD. THIS POSSIBILITY IS BASED UPON VERY LITTLE BZ DATA FROM LATE
ON 22 NOV SO THIS DETERMINATION MUST BE CONSIDERED SPECULATIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO ACTIVE ON 24 NOV AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES.
ISOLATED MINOR TO POSSIBLY MAJOR STORM PERIODS COULD BE EXPERIENCED
EARLY ON THAT DAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 25 NOV AND
QUIET SHOULD RETURN ON 26 NOV.
III. Event Probabilities 24 NOV to 26 NOV
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 NOV 100 Predicted 24 NOV-26 NOV 100/100/098 90 Day Mean 23 NOV 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 NOV 034/045 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 NOV 041/060 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 NOV-26 NOV 020/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 NOV to 26 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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