Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 November 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 NOV 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8108 (N19E16) GENERATED JUST B-CLASS EVENTS AS IT SIMPLIFIED MAGNETICALLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE MIXED POLARITIES IN THE DOMINANT LEADER SPOT HAVE WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY, RESULTING IN RELAXED GRADIENTS. THE REGION NUMBERS APPROXIMATELY 35 SPOTS AND MEASURES 350 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8110 (N27E54) EMERGED AS A SINGLE SPOT WITH LITTLE PLAGE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8108 RETAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR C AND M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. ONE SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 1200-1500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF ACTIVE CONDITIONS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES.
III. Event Probabilities 19 NOV to 21 NOV
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 NOV 092
  Predicted   19 NOV-21 NOV  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        18 NOV 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 NOV  009/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 NOV  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 NOV-21 NOV  015/010-015/015-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 NOV to 21 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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