Viewing archive of Monday, 17 November 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 NOV 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8108 (N21E29) GREW IN WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA, PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SMALL FLARES IN THE PROCESS. ITS LARGEST EVENT WAS A C8/0F AT 1510Z, WITH MODEST RADIO BURSTS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM. THE REGION NOW IS CLASSIFIED AS A BETA-GAMMA DELTA, HAVING MIXED POLARITIES IN THE LARGE LEADER SUNSPOT. ELSEWHERE, THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8108 WOULD BE THE SITE OF ANY ENERGETIC SOLAR EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DURING THE INTERVAL IF A CME-DRIVEN SHOCK, RELATED TO ACTIVITY SEEN LATE ON 13 NOVEMBER, PASSES.
III. Event Probabilities 18 NOV to 20 NOV
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 NOV 094
  Predicted    18 NOV-20 NOV  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        17 NOV 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 NOV  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV  015/015-015/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 NOV to 20 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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