Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 November 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 NOV 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8108 (N21E42)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N TENFLARE AT 15/2246Z. REGION 8108 ALSO PRODUCED A
SMALL C1/SF FLARE AT 16/0125Z. THIS REGION HAS DECREASED IN OVERALL
SIZE BUT HAS INCREASED ITS NUMBER OF SPOTS. IT IS NOW AN EAI SPOT
GROUP WITH A COMPLEX MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. TWO UNCORRELATED
C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS WERE ALSO DETECTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
NEW REGION 8109 (S18E66), A SINGLE HRX SPOT SO FAR, WAS NUMBERED
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RETURNING REGION 8101.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8108 HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN
BECOME MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH LATITUDES MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS A
RESULT OF THE OBSERVED CORONAL MASS EJECTION OF THE EAST SOLAR LIMB
TWO DAYS AGO.
III. Event Probabilities 17 NOV to 19 NOV
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 NOV 096 Predicted 17 NOV-19 NOV 098/098/096 90 Day Mean 16 NOV 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 NOV 010/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 NOV 009/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 NOV-19 NOV 010/010-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 NOV to 19 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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