Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 November 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 NOV 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8100 (S20W53) GENERATED SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PAST DAY. THE LARGEST FLARE OBSERVED IN 8100 WAS A C7/1N PEAKING AT 05/0637Z. THIS REGION REMAINS A LARGE (NEAR 1000 MILLIONTHS) COMPLEX SUNSPOT GROUP (FKC SPOT CLASS). MIXED MAGNETIC POLARITIES AND THE DELTA SUNSPOT CONFIGURATION PERSIST. REGION 8103 (N23W03) GREW SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY AND PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 05/1849Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FREQUENT, PRIMARILY IN REGION 8100 ALTHOUGH REGION 8103 MAY ALSO PRODUCE A FEW C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8100 REMAINS CAPABLE OF MAJOR SOLAR ACTIVITY AND COULD PRODUCE AN M5 OR GREATER X-RAY FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MOST LOCATIONS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT SOME HIGH-LATITUDE STATIONS. THE PROTON EVENT AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV HAS ENDED (START: 04/0830Z, PEAK-72PFU: 04/1120Z, END:05/1125Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REACH STORM CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW DUE TO THE SOLAR ACTIVITY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. ELEVATED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LEVELS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 8 NOVEMBER. ANOTHER PROTON EVENT AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV IS LIKELY IF REGION 8100 PRODUCES ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE.
III. Event Probabilities 06 NOV to 08 NOV
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 NOV 114
  Predicted    06 NOV-08 NOV  115/110/105
  90 Day Mean        05 NOV 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 NOV  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 NOV  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 NOV-08 NOV  025/035-050/060-030/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 NOV to 08 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%20%
Minor storm 10%30%25%
Major-severe storm 05%15%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%25%
Minor storm 10%35%30%
Major-severe storm 05%20%20%

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