Viewing archive of Monday, 3 November 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 NOV 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8100 (S20W27) PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 03/0910Z AND AN M4 (NO OPTICAL) FLARE AT 03/1029Z. BOTH FLARES WERE IMPULSIVE AND HAD TYPE II/IV EVENTS WITH MODERATE CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. CORONAL MORETON WAVES WERE OBSERVED WITH THESE EVENTS. A HALO CME WAS OBSERVED TO FOLLOW THESE EVENTS. FINALLY, REGION 8100 PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 03/2016Z WITH A TYPE IV. DURING THE PERIOD, DRAMATIC GROWTH OCCURRED IN THIS REGION AND A STRONG MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION FORMED. REGION 8100 BECAME A SIGNIFICANT REGION DURING THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO LARGE AREAL COVERAGE AND GREATLY INCREASED MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND HIGH GRADIENTS. REPORTS WERE RECEIVED OF STRONG SHEAR THAT HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE DELTA AND EMERGING FLUX.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8100 IS CAPABLE OF CONTINUED M-CLASS AND OCCASIONAL X-CLASS EVENT PRODUCTION. CONTINUED DRAMATIC GROWTH COULD RESULT IN A REGION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT M-CLASS EVENTS AND SEVERAL X-CLASS EVENTS A DAY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. ONCE AGAIN, ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE UNSETTLED ON 04 NOV. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR 05 NOV. DUE TO THE HALO CME MENTIONED ABOVE, ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON 06 NOVEMBER. PERIODS OF MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DISTURBANCE. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A MODERATE POSSIBILITY OF AN ENERGETIC PROTON EVENT FROM REGION 8100 DURING THE PERIOD. ONE MORE DAY OF CONTINUED GROWTH AND INCREASE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY WOULD MAKE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THAT OCCURRENCE HIGH.
III. Event Probabilities 04 NOV to 06 NOV
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 30%30%30%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 NOV 110
  Predicted    04 NOV-06 NOV  115/120/120
  90 Day Mean        03 NOV 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 NOV  002/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 NOV  002/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 NOV-06 NOV  010/010-018/020-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 NOV to 06 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%25%
Minor storm 05%15%30%
Major-severe storm 01%05%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%25%30%
Minor storm 05%20%35%
Major-severe storm 01%05%20%

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