Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 October 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 OCT 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8097 (N16W01), A 4-SPOT
'CRO' BETA GROUP, GENERATED A LONG DURATION C3/SF FLARE WITH
NUMEROUS ERUPTIVE CENTERS THAT PEAKED AT 21/1754Z. THE FLARE BEGAN
AFTER A FILAMENT RUNNING EAST-WEST THROUGH THE REGION BECAME ACTIVE
AND DISAPPEARED. EARLIER IN THE REPORTING PERIOD
(20/2349Z-21/0056Z), A 22-DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED AT LOCATION
S33E59 IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LONG DURATION B3 X-RAY EVENT AND MINOR
TYPE II SHOCK. DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME, SOHO-LASCO/EIT RECORDED A
PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION THAT BEGAN AS A BRIGHT FRONT IN
THE SOUTHEAST, AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER FRONT TO THE WEST AND
NORTH.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS FORECAST MAY BE ALTERED
FOLLOWING FURTHER ANALYSIS OF TODAY'S C3 X-RAY EVENT.
III. Event Probabilities 22 OCT to 24 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 OCT 085 Predicted 22 OCT-24 OCT 083/083/083 90 Day Mean 21 OCT 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 OCT 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 OCT 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 OCT-24 OCT 005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 OCT to 24 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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