Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 October 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE ONLY X-RAY FLARE THAT OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS A B1 AT 19/1906Z. NO OPTICAL FLARES WERE REPORTED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED ACTIVITY ON OCT 20 OR 21 DUE TO A CME OBSERVED ON THE SW LIMB IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN LDE X-RAY EVENT AT 16/2147Z.
III. Event Probabilities 20 OCT to 22 OCT
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 OCT 085
  Predicted    20 OCT-22 OCT  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        19 OCT 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 OCT  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT  015/008-015/008-010/004
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 OCT to 22 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%

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