Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 October 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES OCCURRED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON OCT 20 OR 21. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FROM THE CME OBSERVED ON THE SW LIMB ASSOCIATED WITH THE B1 LDE AT 16/2147Z. MOST OF THIS CME IS EXPECTED TO MISS THE EARTH DUE TO ITS APPARENT DIRECTION AND SURMISED ORIGIN AT (OR JUST BEHIND) THE WEST LIMB.
III. Event Probabilities 19 OCT to 21 OCT
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 OCT 087
  Predicted   19 OCT-21 OCT  088/088/090
  90 Day Mean        18 OCT 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 OCT  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 OCT  004/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 OCT-21 OCT  005/005-015/008-015/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 OCT to 21 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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