Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 October 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8092 (N24E01), NOW SPOTLESS, PRODUCED A B4/0F FLARE WITH TYPE II SWEEP AT 0858Z. THE TWO SPOTTED REGIONS, 8093 (N31E14) AND 8094 (N21W37), WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY INCREASED JUST AFTER A WEAK SUDDEN IMPULSE PASSED AT APPROXIMATELY 10/1630Z. THIS DISTURBANCE IS THOUGHT TO BE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A CME THAT LEFT THE SUN ON 07 OCTOBER. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SINCE 1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO MILDLY ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 12 OCT to 14 OCT
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 OCT 086
  Predicted    12 OCT-14 OCT  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        11 OCT 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 OCT  025/027
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 OCT  ???/???
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 OCT-14 OCT  010/???-010/???-010/???
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 OCT to 14 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%40%
Minor storm 25%20%20%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%

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